Livestock Profits Boost U.S. Farm Income in 2025

By Andi Anderson

The latest USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) forecast shows a mixed picture for American agriculture in 2025. Overall farm sales are expected to reach $535.2 billion, up 4.7 percent from 2024, but results vary by sector.

Crop sales are projected to decline by 2.5 percent to $236.6 billion due to lower prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans, combined with higher input costs and strong global yields. In contrast, animal product sales are forecast to climb 11.2 percent to $298.6 billion, supported by very high beef prices and stronger pork and poultry markets. Milk sales may dip slightly as farmgate prices fall.

Fruit and vegetable growers see a mixed outlook. Vegetable and melon sales may slip 2.1 percent, while fruit and nut sales could rise 6.5 percent. Labor shortages remain a challenge for these producers.

Government payments are expected to surge to $40.5 billion, up from 2024, mainly from disaster assistance. Increased support may continue if export market access weakens. Production expenses are predicted to increase 2.6 percent to $467.4 billion, with livestock costs rising sharply and feed prices dropping.

Average net cash farm income for large farms is estimated at $127,000. Corn and soybean growers may see declines of 13 and 12 percent, while wheat income remains steady. Livestock producers fare far better, with dairy income expected to rise 14 percent, hogs 21 percent, poultry 30 percent, and cattle a striking 71 percent.

Export forecasts are steady overall. Wheat exports are set to grow 7.7 percent in volume, corn exports 22 percent, and broiler meat slightly higher. Soybean exports remain challenging: while volumes may rise 8.8 percent, values could drop to $21.5 billion. Soybean oil exports stand out with a projected 50 percent volume increase and nearly 400 percent value growth.

A weaker U.S. dollar-down against the Brazilian Real, Canadian Dollar, and Euro-has improved export competitiveness despite tariffs. Long-term risks include trade shifts if tariffs remain and consumer boycotts of U.S. products in some countries.

The outlook shows strong livestock profits and government support balancing weaker crop markets, leaving U.S. agriculture stable but facing export uncertainty, especially for soybeans and value-added foods.

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