By Jamie Martin
U.S. agriculture producers are on high alert for the potential of a renewed trade war with China under President-elect Donald Trump, threatening key exports like soybeans.
Last year, agricultural exports to China dropped to $29.1 billion, a 24% decline from the previous year, with further reductions anticipated.
Acting Deputy Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Services, Jason Hafemeister, expressed concerns about the volatility in trade relations with China, emphasizing efforts to diversify markets. "It’s a concern," Hafemeister remarked, highlighting proactive strategies to mitigate potential disruptions.
Trump's election victory has reignited worries about new tariffs on Chinese imports, which could provoke retaliatory measures affecting U.S. agricultural market access.
The agricultural sector is already reeling from low corn and soy prices due to large harvests and intense competition, notably from Brazil.
The trade deficit in agriculture is expected to reach a record $42.5 billion in 2025. U.S. soybean exports have notably declined since the last trade war, complicating efforts to meet trade deal obligations.
Despite these challenges, the industry remains hopeful. According to Ryan LeGrand, CEO of the U.S. Grains Council, diversifying into new markets and value-added products is key, though replacing China's market size is daunting.
Verity Ulibarri, a sorghum farmer and chair of the U.S. Grains Council, expressed confidence in navigating potential risks, drawing on past experiences from the 2018 trade war. "We’re not scared, we know there are risks," Ulibarri stated.
As trade dynamics evolve, U.S. farmers are increasingly looking to markets like Mexico, which has recently surpassed China as the largest U.S. ag export customer, highlighting shifts in global trade patterns.
Photo Credit: istock-oticki
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