Michigan Apple Crop Estimates Spark Debate Among Industry Leaders

By Andi Anderson

Michigan’s 2025 apple crop outlook has sparked debate, with two major groups presenting very different estimates. USApple, which provides what it calls the “official” national forecast, predicts that Michigan will harvest about 30 million bushels of apples this year. That number is slightly lower than last year’s forecast but still above the state’s long-term average.

The Michigan Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Association (MACMA), however, disagrees strongly with that figure. Its general manager, Dawn Drake, estimated the state’s harvest at only 25.5 million bushels — 4.5 million less than USApple’s projection.

Drake said her organization bases estimates on the previous year’s crop and has historically come close to the final USDA totals.

In fact, she pointed to 2024 as an example. USApple forecasted 30.5 million bushels, while MACMA projected 27 million. USDA’s final tally came in at 27.3 million, much closer to MACMA’s estimate. “Our opinion on estimating the crop is the crop is what it is, and it's eventually going to come out,” Drake explained.

The difference in numbers is not just a matter of prediction. According to Drake, inflated estimates can have real consequences, particularly for Michigan’s processing market. About 60% of the state’s apples are used for processing, and overestimated crops can lower negotiated prices.

“When USApple comes out with these numbers, we’re right in the middle of negotiating minimum processing prices,” Drake said. She argued that higher estimates are sometimes used as a marketing tool for fresh apple sales, but they can put processors at a disadvantage.

While the final numbers will not be known until harvest ends, industry leaders continue to watch the debate closely.

For now, Michigan farmers are preparing for a crop that could land anywhere between the two forecasts, with markets and contracts already being shaped by the competing estimates.

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