By Andi Anderson
Michigan’s sweet cherry industry suffered a severe loss of nearly 75 percent of its crop in 2024 due to extreme and variable weather.
A mild winter followed by warm, wet conditions encouraged fungal diseases such as American brown rot, while heavy rains during harvest caused fruit cracking, reducing marketability. This prompted disaster declarations for affected counties, allowing growers access to aid.
This real-world challenge is the type of event studied by Dr. Tor Tolhurst, who joined Michigan State University in fall 2024 as an assistant professor in Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics.
Supported by the Agricultural Resiliency Program, Tolhurst’s research addresses long-term challenges in plant agriculture caused by water and extreme weather.
As an applied microeconomist, Tolhurst uses quantitative methods to explore “tail events,” rare but impactful occurrences outside normal expectations, and their influence on economic behavior.
In agriculture, an example is extreme heat: just a few days of very high temperatures can significantly reduce crop yields like corn, affecting farmers’ financial outcomes and insurance needs.
Tolhurst explains that understanding these events requires looking both backward to measure impacts and forward to analyze how farmers adjust behavior to manage risk. Because humans tend to be risk-averse, they may adopt strategies to avoid or reduce the effects of unlikely but damaging events.
With degrees from the University of British Columbia, University of Guelph, and University of California, Davis, Tolhurst brings extensive expertise. His work has been published in leading journals, and his previous role was at Purdue University.
Chad Cotti, chair of Tolhurst’s department at MSU, praises his expertise and expects it will strengthen Michigan’s agricultural risk management and policy development amid increasing extreme weather.
Tolhurst’s initial research focus may include specialty crops affected by tail events, an area with limited current knowledge. Ultimately, he aims to produce policy-relevant research that benefits Michigan farmers and stakeholders.
He values MSU’s collaborative culture as essential to advancing his research and extension efforts, looking forward to contributing to the university and Michigan agriculture community.
Photo Credit: pixabay-couleur
Categories: Michigan, Weather