By Andi Anderson
As spring approaches, most U.S. farmers traditionally secure the majority of their input purchases ahead of the planting season. However, recent years have brought tighter cash flow and uncertain commodity prices, causing some farms to delay early purchasing.
This means many producers may still need to buy critical inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides, and seeds as planting season draws near. Even with late purchasing, there are still opportunities to make informed decisions—especially when markets show signs of volatility in price and supply.
Understanding market conditions is essential because the balance of supply and demand is the starting point for all input pricing. Prices shift based on global production levels, trade issues, demand changes, and political tensions. By watching these trends closely, farmers can better determine when to secure the inputs they need.
Recent data shows that phosphate fertilizer prices have fluctuated continually since 2021. Prices briefly stabilized but began rising again due to global supply reductions and increased demand.
Additional concerns arose in early 2026 when the U.S./Israel conflict with Iran sparked fears of supply disruptions for nitrogen and potassium, pushing phosphate prices upward.
At the same time, commodity prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat have generally fallen since 2022, creating a larger gap between fertilizer cost and crop revenue. This trend is reflected in rising commodity‑to‑phosphorus price ratios, meaning more of each bushel’s value must be used to pay for fertilizer.
Nitrogen fertilizer follows a similar pattern. Even though most nitrogen used in U.S. agriculture comes from domestic production, global unrest could still affect the remaining share of imported supply.
If disruptions occur, nitrogen prices may increase sharply, similar to what happened in 2025. Potassium supplies remain steady for now, but because the U.S. relies heavily on imports from Canada, any changes to trade relations or agreements like the USMCA could lead to higher costs.
Pesticide prices are also influenced by international trade and tariffs. Some active ingredients, such as those used in atrazine and glyphosate, are primarily imported from countries like China. Even with slight tariff reductions, many pesticide ingredients still face added import taxes that contribute to rising prices.
Beyond understanding market trends, farmers must identify their specific input needs for the year. Soil samples should be up to date so producers know exactly which nutrients are lacking. Large‑volume products should be purchased first to secure essential supplies.
Farmers also need to consider their available cash, loan options, storage capacity, and whether planting plans may require more seed or transplants. Making multiple smaller purchases can help spread financial risk in unpredictable markets.
As spring draws nearer, staying informed, reviewing input needs, and understanding market signals can help farmers make smart, timely decisions that support a successful planting season despite volatile conditions.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-alexeyrumyantsev
Categories: Michigan, Sustainable Agriculture