By Andi Anderson
U.S. beef slaughter declined sharply during the fall quarter, falling 19 percent compared with the same period in 2024, according to recently released USDA data.
While the decrease appears large, experts say it reflects deeper changes in the cattle industry.
James Mitchell, agricultural economist with the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, explained that producers reduced herd sizes heavily in recent years. “In 2023, we had a situation where producers were actively culling deep into their herds,” Mitchell said. “In 2025, there are simply fewer cows to slaughter.”
USDA data shows January 2025 beef cow and heifer inventories dropped to about 27.9 million head, the lowest level since 1961. Mitchell expects the national slaughter rate to reach roughly 42 percent for the year.
Smaller herd sizes have helped push cattle prices to record levels. During the summer, fed cattle prices reached as high as $242 per hundredweight in the Southern Plains. Strong pasture conditions and profitability supported producers. “We had strong profitability the last couple of years,” Mitchell said. “Acknowledging that input costs are still high, we’ve had a couple of years of really good production and good pastures.”
Culling remains a normal part of cattle production, with producers typically removing 10 to 20 percent of their herds annually due to age and declining productivity. From Aug. 30 through Nov. 15, producers slaughtered more than 543,000 head of cattle.
Despite these changes, consumers should not expect relief at the grocery store. “With slaughter down, you have less lean trimmings that you would use to make ground beef,” Mitchell said. “And so what we've seen this year is higher ground beef prices — and ground has typically been a competitive product.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports ground chuck averaged $6.33 per pound in September 2025, compared with $5.19 in September 2023. Mitchell added, “The fact is that consumer prices are high, and they're probably going to get higher.”
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Categories: National