By Jamie Martin
The USDA has released a new forecast showing that U.S. farm income will remain under pressure in 2026. Net farm income is projected to decline slightly to $153.4 billion, continuing a trend of weakening profitability across much of the farm sector. After accounting for inflation, the decline becomes more pronounced.
Government payments are expected to remain near record levels and are projected to make up almost one-third of total farm income. USDA data indicate that without this support, farm income would fall sharply, underlining the growing role of federal assistance in keeping many operations financially stable.
Crop producers are expected to see modest gains in cash receipts before inflation. Corn receipts are forecast to rise due to strong production, while soybean receipts are expected to stay flat. Wheat receipts are projected to decline slightly because of lower sales volumes. In real terms, overall crop income is expected to decrease.
Livestock and animal product receipts are forecast to drop in 2026, despite strong cattle prices. Lower prices for eggs and milk are expected to reduce overall livestock income, contributing to the broader decline in farm profitability.
Farm production expenses are projected to increase slightly in nominal terms to nearly $478 billion. When adjusted for inflation, however, expenses are expected to decline modestly, offering only limited relief to farmers facing tight budgets and rising debt levels.
Farm household income remains heavily supported by off-farm earnings. While median household income is projected to rise, median farm income is expected to remain negative. USDA revisions to 2025 data show weaker income and higher expenses than previously estimated, reinforcing concerns that the current downturn in the farm economy may be long-lasting rather than temporary.
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Categories: National