By Jamie Martin
The U.S. beef and cattle industry are going through a period of transition. After years of low prices, drought, and rising input costs, cattle producers are finally seeing positive returns. However, rebuilding the national herd remains slow and difficult due to persistent economic and environmental challenges.
The nation’s cattle supply reached its lowest level in over seven decades in early 2025, with just 86.7 million heads. Ongoing drought has worsened pasture conditions, forcing ranchers to buy expensive feed and hay.
Many chose to market female cattle instead of keeping them for breeding, which reduced future supplies and delayed herd recovery. Rebuilding the herd could take several years since it takes around 30 months for new calves to contribute to production growth.
Demand for U.S. beef remains strong, with consumption projected at 28.6 billion pounds in 2025. However, even a small drop in consumer demand or an increase in imports could pressure cattle prices. Currently, higher demand supports better returns, but those gains could vanish quickly if market conditions shift.
To protect livestock health, the U.S.-Mexico border remains closed to cattle, bison, and horses due to the New World screwworm threat. This restriction, while necessary, adds more uncertainty to cattle supplies.
Additionally, rising beef imports—especially from Brazil and Argentina—pose challenges to U.S. cattle producers. The administration’s recent decision to increase Argentina’s beef import quota may slightly reduce consumer prices but could lower future cattle prices and discourage herd expansion.
Despite current profitability, ranchers continue to face thin margins. Any decline in prices could lead to further contraction of the U.S. cattle herd, tightening supplies and increasing dependence on imported beef.
Photo Credit:istock-123ducu
Categories: National